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Editors
Manuel Castells
USC Annenberg School for Communication & Journalism
Larry Gross
USC Annenberg School for Communication & Journalism
Associate Editors
Jennings Bryant
University of Alabama
Susan Douglas
University of Michigan
Oscar Gandy
Annenberg/ University of Pennsylvania
Kathleen Hall Jamieson
Annenberg/ University of Pennsylvania
Robin Elizabeth Mansell
London School of Economics
Alejandro Piscitelli
University of Buenos Aires
Marshall Scott Poole
University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign
N. Bhaskara Rao
Centre for Media Studies, New Delhi
Ellen Seiter
USC Cinematic Arts
Book Review Editors
Gustavo Cardoso
University of Lisbon
Josh Kun
USC Annenberg School
Jack Linchuan Qiu
Chinese University of Hong Kong
Advisory Editors
Jonathan David Aronson
USC Annenberg School
Sandra Ball-Rokeach
USC Annenberg School
Svetlana Balmaeva
Liberal Arts University
Sarah Banet-Weiser
USC Annenberg School
Howard S. Becker
San Francisco
Yochai Benkler
Harvard Law School
Bruce Bimber
UC Santa Barbara
Pablo Javier Boczkowski
Northwestern University
William Dutton
Oxford University
Richard Dyer
University of London
Dilip Gaonkar
Northwestern University
Sergio Godoy
Universidad Catolica de Chile
Trudy Govier
University of Lethbridge
Larry Grossberg
University of North Carolina
James Hamilton
Duke University
Henry Jenkins
USC Annenberg School
Steve Jones
University of Illinois-Chicago
Elihu Katz
Annenberg/ University of Pennsylvania
Douglas Kellner
UCLA
Marwan M. Kraidy
Annenberg/ University of Pennsylvania
Robert McChesney
University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign
Toby Miller
University of California, Riverside
William John Mitchell
MIT
Peter R. Monge
USC Annenberg School
Thomas Nakayama
Arizona State University
Horace Newcomb
University of Georgia
John Durham Peters
University of Iowa
Dana Polan
NYU
Adam Powell
USC Engineering
Monroe Price
Annenberg/ University of Pennsylvania
Michael Renov
USC Cinematic Arts
Michael Schudson
Columbia University
John Thompson
Cambridge University
Ingrid Volkmer
University of Melbourne
Simon J. Wilkie
USC Economics
Barbie Zelizer
Annenberg/ University of Pennsylvania
Yuezhi Zhao
Simon Fraser University

University of Southern California

International Journal of Communication, Vol 4 (2010)

A Time-Series, Multinational Analysis of Democratic Forecasts and Internet Diffusion

Jacob Groshek

Abstract


This study examines the democratic effects that the Internet has shown using macro-level, cross-national data in a sequence of time-series statistical tests. The democratic potential of the Internet may be inestimable, but its national level democratic effects were startlingly limited through 2003. Forecasting models generated in this study demonstrate that the actual democracy level of nearly every country in this study was not greater than its corresponding statistically-predicted democracy level for the years 1994 – 2003. These results are consistent even in countries where the Internet was more widely diffused, which suggests that Internet diffusion was not a specific causal mechanism of national-level democratic growth during the timeframe analyzed. Thus, based on the results of the 72 countries reported here, the diffusion of the Internet should not be considered a democratic panacea, but rather a component of contemporary democratization processes.

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